Update on the Progress of the Electrification of Transportation

Graph from Study in Nature Energy Modified by Me to Add Timeline

 Cross posted from Energy Trends Insider

I found this study on Nature Energy, which I subscribe to: Moving beyond alternative fuel hype to decarbonize transportation.

Although I disagree with the study's main conclusion, the above chart they put together (which I have modified) was of interest to me because it suggests that things are finally starting to happen when it comes to electrification of transportation.

The study authors combed through the New York Times archives for stories on energy topics. They summed up negative and positive articles to calculate the number of net positive articles about a given technology which they define as hype.

Had they mined the entire internet instead of just the Times, I suspect the hype about biofuels would have been off the chart, literally. Stories about students piling into biodiesel powered buses to spread the gospel had become a worn out cliché.

They lumped corn ethanol, cellulosic ethanol, and biodiesel into one category. It would be interesting to see which was generating the most hype.

Mass Production of Multi-purpose Large-capacity Lithium-ion Battery Packs Begins Next Year

Just found this press release over on Green Car Congress:

SANYO to Mass Produce
New Large-capacity High-voltage Lithium-ion Battery Systems

This is big. I've been waiting for this announcement. The pack for "light" electric vehicles (the one with the disembodied hand) has twice the amp hours of my electric bike (but about 25% lower voltage). They sell about a million electric bikes a year in China.

Inside each of those plastic boxes are rows of batteries about the size of a C cell along with some sophisticated battery management circuitry including a charging system. Instead of trying to develop big batteries they are saving money by finding ways to effectively string together small ones using sophisticated electronics to make them behave like one big battery, which is exactly what the Dewalt packs that I use on my bike do as well, except the charging system is separate.

The battery is the weak link in all electric vehicles and solar power as well. These packs are the start of what the world has been waiting for. Put one on each motor for each wheel and you have yourself a low speed four person EV worth owning.

Get the storage version (the one on the left) for your solar panels and you can charge your light electric vehicle when you get home.

The next step will be bigger packs for electric car conversions. That will be a paradigm shift. The big car makers will be forced to compete in price with mom and pop shops converting cars to electric.

For those out there waiting for a pack to replace the V-8 in their F-150, don't hold your breath. That may never be cost effective. The cars of tomorrow will barely resemble the tanks we drive today ...IMHO.

I have not been this excited by since Dewalt power tools announced they would be using A123 batteries in their high-end power tool line. I was first in line to buy and adapt them to an electric bike.

Keep in mind that this is not another pie-in-the-sky technological lab experiment. This is nothing but meat and potatoes mass production of existing, commercially viable technology and it is all that's needed to make these modules affordable. Entrepreneurs will take it from there.

A2B verses A123

[Update May 23, 2010] Spotted another guy riding an A2B on the bike trail the other day so I thought I'd follow him to see how he used it. He was listening to an MP3 player and didn't have any rear view mirrors.

I clocked him at 20 mph the whole time except when he slowed down in traffic. He used his pedals once, briefly, as he climbed a short, fairly steep hill.

A few days later I spotted him again going in the opposite direction. Now I know where he lives and where he works!

[Update May 13, 2010] Spotted an A2B coming down the road yesterday. No pedaling. He turned a corner and headed up a hill. Again, no pedaling. That is not a bicycle. That's a scooter with pedals on it, commonly known as a moped. Is it cool for these quiet, underpowered mopeds to share bike lanes and trails? Sure. They're quiet, don't spew fumes, and as long as they don't exceed bicycle speed limits they are no more dangerous or obnoxious than a bicycle.

[Update April 4, 2010] I finally test rode an A2B. It does not have the ergonomics of a bicycle. Note in the picture how far forward the pedals are in relation to the seat. It feels like a kid's bike. You will be much more dependent on the battery, which means it will have less range and a shorter life for a given battery size. And if you have to pedal it home with a dead battery, consider calling your friend who owns a truck, at least in Seattle. I have a feeling that the battery won't last long because most will treat the A2B as a scooter rather than a bicycle.

The one I rode had been purchased used from the dealer. It had been returned (at least once) for a refund and the new owner was having his doubts. My guess is that the battery is grossly undersized for an electric scooter, which is how most owners treat it.

I've seen a couple of these A2B machines running around town. I finally spotted one on display at a scooter store. That's my electric bike parked next to it (videos of it in action found here and here). Some yahoo wanting to purchase an electric scooter to drive from his yacht at one end of a dock to the mailbox at the other end had waylaid the proprietor so I never got a chance to test ride it. You can find a video of a test ride done by the WSJ here.

From the above video:

"…after people ride it for a while they sort of quickly migrate through that phase of …[pedaling] …and, and usually when that surprise is, is discovered [that the pedals are mostly for show] it comes with a little, 'Wow!'"

I would describe the A2B as an electric moped disguised as an electric bicycle. Note in the video that it is described as an electric bike. Mopeds (motor--pedal, get it?) are scooters with pedals. In most, a gasoline engine provides the power. The engine is limited to something less than one horsepower, which allows you to ride one without a license in most states. The pedals are a necessary evil to help you get up hills and to get rolling. There is no way you would want to try to pedal one home if you ran out of gas. The same is true for the A2B unless home is at the bottom of the hill you're on.

Mopeds also differ from a scooter because, like a bicycle, they have larger diameter wheels. A tiny wheel diameter will help you get up hills and to get started from a dead stop, but it requires a lot of RPM to go fast. RPM is limited on bikes by our human geometry, thus the bigger wheel diameter and poor hill climbing ability--a trade off for speed on flat surfaces. RPM is less limited on mopeds, thus the slightly smaller wheel diameter, and scooters with high RPM single-stroke engines can get really high revolutions, thus the really small wheels.

Why market the A2B as an electric bike? Bicycles are often chosen over scooters because the law treats scooters like little tiny cars (sans armor plating). But riding a scooter in traffic is viewed by many as a death wish. Bicycle laws provide a measure of flexibility to protect riders from cars. They can ride beside the road, share pathways with pedestrians, and in most places, on sidewalks as long as pedestrians are given right of way. A bike can also go off-road if needed, be thrown on a bike rack, or lugged into your living room.

The A2B will stick out like a sore thumb on a bike trail or sidewalk, especially since most people apparently don't bother to pedal it.

A bicycle that you have to pedal (where the electric assist really is just an assist) is no more of a hazard than any other bicycle adhering to speed limits but lines have to be drawn. We can't let scooters and motorcycles on pathways and sidewalks just because they keep it under 20 mph. IMHO, if you are not using your legs to move you should not be on a bike trail or sidewalk.

If you are forced to ride this thing in traffic at all times, why not bite the bullet and get a scooter?

The battery only has a one-year warranty. This is the problem with virtually all-electric vehicles at the moment. The batteries suck. I've been using mine for three years with no noticeable drop in performance but you can't get A123 batteries on a commercially produced bike …yet.

A123 Is a Go

This is the type of battery I have been using in my hybrid electric bike since 2006. Each battery is good for 0.23 amp hours. I string forty together in a series/parallel configuration for a total of 4.6 amp hours.



Above is a picture of their new automotive class 20 amp hour battery.

I know first hand how well these batteries perform and it is nothing short of amazing. I'm still using the same ones and they still work like new (see here, and here).

A123 just launched their initial public offering and it was a huge success, raising $378 million. This is the real deal. Unlike corn ethanol refineries, which are just moonshine stills writ large, these batteries are a radical new technology and have been powering Dewalt's top-end power tools for about three years now. Back in 2006 investors thought they couldn't lose with the government guaranteeing a market for corn ethanol. According to Hybridcars.com:

Pacific Ethanol soared to $42 per share in May 2006 and now are worth about 57 cents. VeraSun, an ethanol maker thought to have huge potential a few years ago, is now bankrupt.

However, nothing is for sure. They may have a killer technology, but that does not mean somebody won't come along with an even better battery. One misstep like a giant battery recall due to a manufacturing flaw could end it all. There may be health concerns about the nano particles used, patent infringement claims, or even lithium shortages. It's a complicated world.

Our government seems to think they have potential, having just awarded them a $250 million DOE grant. But that same government still backs corn ethanol so maybe this is a bad sign.

I called this shot way back in 2006. As I always say, the secret is to call lots of shots, highlighting only the ones that pan out.

Corn Ethanol--Big Power and Big Savings!

Jo Borras posted what is essentially an infomercial in sheep's clothing over on gas2.0 biofuels, oil, a revolution, about a company that soups up cars to get more horsepower. It's just another pro-corn ethanol blog article but it's also an example of what is becoming more and more obvious. People can be amazingly impervious to evidence, not that Obama was actually born in the United States or that global warming is real. I parse out his post below.

We’ve covered the numerous benefits of ethanol-based fuels over and over on this blog,…

I'm hard pressed to find anything that does not have some kind of benefit. Corn ethanol is like deciding to never wear clothes. The negatives overwhelm the benefits (whatever they might be).

If you’ve spoken to this bunch [ignorant, shallow-minded, self-absorbed, NASCAR enthusiasts?], you already [know] that most talk of climate change and Peak Oil concerns fall on deaf ears. What matters is power, everything else is irrelevant.

The irony in the above statement is that corn ethanol is worse than gasoline in almost every respect so it's actually a good thing that these gear heads have been ignoring Jo.

Of course, it’s easier to simply ignore this group, but the (sad?) truth …this group, more than any other, is a group that must be reached for the “green car” movement to really take hold.

Actually, it would probably be best if we did ignore this group. Very few people buy cars based on their drag racing potential. And the sad truth is that a car burning corn ethanol is anything but "green" making this whole article a reality twisting exercise.

In a nutshell, this hot rod shop has, like every other company in the world, jumped on the green wash bandwagon to hawk their products. Their gimmick is to tune turbo-charged car engines to take advantage of the higher octane rating of corn ethanol. This isn't anything new. This isn't rocket science. A higher octane rating simply means that the fuel can be compressed harder before it explodes. By monkeying around with the engine timing and turbocharger boost pressure, you can increase a car's power output by staving off the ignition spark until later in the compression cycle, allowing more fuel and air to get jammed in above the cylinder. Big whoop. But now try to put regular gas into this tuned engine and watch what happens. The fuel will pre-ignite (knock) to beat hell.

Rich cites another benefit to the E85:

100 octane race gas costs about $7.99 a gallon here. Even 91 octane costs over $3.00, easily, while the E85 averages about $2.79. Over time, this is a huge savings…

Correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems to me that we can also safely ignore all of the people out there paying $7.99 a gallon for racing fuel when looking for alternative fuels and solutions to global warming. And look, he forgot to add 84 cents to the cost of that ethanol to account for the lower mileage and the 45 cent blending subsidy as well, making the real cost per gallon of the ethanol about $3.90 equivalent.

You won't get better mileage than gasoline with this tune up kit, but that fact is glossed over as well. You should get more miles out of your E85 however, not that these guys give a hoot about mileage.

Like it or not, the enthusiasts need to be reached for a universal change to happen (whether that change is to cleaner-burning bio-fuels, fuel cells, or full electric) and offering them more of what they want (power) in a more environmentally responsible package that doesn’t punish their pocketbooks is a great way to start

He made that all up. Enthusiasts are few and far between. They can safely be left out of the loop. They will compete with each other with whatever technology is handed to them, like these guys setting land speed records in a Prius and this guy with the 72 Datsun running A123 batteries (like the ones on my bike) thumping every high octane car that crosses its path. It's all relative, which is why there are so many classes of racing and types of fuel. Corn ethanol is not more environmentally responsible. This whole article is a fairy tale.

Down in the comments Jo praised some goofball a concerned commenter for parroting the standard Renewable Fuels Association talking points his unique insights on ethanol:

AWESOME stuff, Dan! Thanks for reading through and posting the thoughtful response - I’d love to read more!!

If you want to read what Dan said that Jo thought was so AWESOME go here

And if you want to see this AWESOME stuff debunked, go here, paying particular attention to myths 7, 12, and 13.

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