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Friday, January 15, 2016

Bill Nye the Science Guy Social Primate and Nuclear Energy

BillandSunnivaBill Nye photo via Simon Fraser University Flickr Creative Commons, Sunniva Rose Via Screenshot from TEDx Talk
An article last week in Business Insider discussed Bill Nye's conversion from anti-GMO to pro-GMO (genetically modified organisms). According to Nye, while attending a political rally in NYC:
"...one speaker insisted that the US president Barack Obama was part of a conspiracy sponsored by large agriculture companies to control minds — and received a great many cheers — somehow that passionate man at the microphone crossed a line for me."
Was it a desire to distance himself from conspiracy theorist nut-balls or was it the result of his exposure to facts by real scientists at Monsanto that finally convinced him to change his mind? If it was the latter then his stance was largely based on a lack of knowledge. Some are hoping that because Nye was convinced to distance himself from anti-GMO ideologues that he may also one day distance himself from the anti-nuclear energy counterparts, but I'm skeptical. Nye was not nearly as invested in his GMO stance as he is in his anti-nuclear energy belief.

After reading the above article I typed in the search terms Obama Nuclear Conspiracy and found an article on a conspiracy theorist website titled Nuclear Power Plants--Can We Trust Government Agencies To Tell The Truth? From that article:
"Exelon, the largest nuclear power generator in the USA, was a generous financial supporter to get Barack Hussein Obama elected president. No wonder President Obama supports and promotes building more nuclear power plants."
At the bottom was the following crass political cartoon (I've censored it for the weak of heart) which encapsulates the big three; anti-GMO, anti-vaccination, and anti-nuclear energy, oh, and fluoride.
CitizenCattle1
Bill Nye the comedian celebrity version of everyone's favorite high-school science teacher, but funnier, and goofier, much goofier, still thinks nuclear energy is too dangerous while Sunniva Rose, a practicing nuclear physicist and real world embodiment of the lawyer character played by Reese Witherspoon in the movie Legally Blonde demonstrates in her TEDx talk that nuclear energy is actually (ironically?) the safest energy source we have. Click here to see a video of Nye's view on nuclear energy. A screenshot of the graphic used by Sunniva is shown below. It's a more colorful version of the one found here, and similar to one published by Greenpeace and one in Wikipedia here.

DeathsPerTWh


Bill Nye: "It may be that nuclear power, at our current level of understanding, is just inherently not safe enough."

Sunniva Rose: "How: is it possible to worry about global warming, and not be pro-nuclear?"

As an aside, Sunniva is also trained in classical ballet. Not to be outdone, here's a YouTube video of Bill Nye doing a series of back flips on the reality show Dancing with the Stars ...classic Nye humor. While the shock wears off, the laughing starts as you deduce that the guy doing back flips has to be a stunt double (which you then confirm with a quick Google search), but that fact was lost on the person publishing the video. In this case, all his lack of critical thinking cost him was a good laugh.

Tuesday, September 29, 2015

Does the 2016 Chevy Volt Really "Seat Five?"

Answer ...not really. More on that subject later.
cruzevolt
Chevy Cruze and Volt
I was hoping to see the Chevy Bolt and Tesla Model X at the Seattle car show but the Nissan Leaf was the only all-electric car I saw on display this year. Nissan hasn't messed with the Leaf's look yet but the range on its SV and SL models has been improved about 22% (for a price).

I saw maybe a half dozen hybrids and a few plug-in hybrids on display. I took several pictures of what I thought was a Chevy Volt displayed on a roped-off stage. Later, out on the floor, I ran across two actual Volts. I'd been taking pictures of the new Chevy Cruze by mistake, which looks a lot like the Volt from the side. There was no information available for either car.
jetta
Volkswagen Jetta hybrid
The Volkswagen Jetta Hybrid caught my eye. MSRP was $32,340, with a combined MPG of 44. Not bad. I asked the Volkswagen representative if there were any diesels present and was told that for obvious reasons, no.

The Volt has gone through a major redesign and according to Inside EVs:
Perhaps most importantly ... the 2016 Volt can now seat 5 persons [author's emphasis]. The fact you can seat 5 is a real selling bonus [my emphasis] for the extended range [my emphasis] car.
Note: the Chevy volt is a plug-in hybrid. Their marketing department created the term (EREV) extended range electric vehicle for its version of a plug-in hybrid to differentiate it from other plug-in hybrids. However, they don't hesitate to call it one or the other depending on the situation. For example, in an ad attacking the plug-in Prius, GM refers to the Volt as a plug-in hybrid. Interestingly enough, they also released an ad attacking electric cars. The Chevy Bolt marketing department was probably not too happy about that.

Friday, September 25, 2015

Thoughts on the Volkswagen Emissions Scandal

Exhaust


 Cross Posted from Energy Trends Insider

Volkswagen was just caught cheating on emissions tests for some of its diesel powered cars. As a result, their stock price has plummeted. I no longer have to deal with emissions tests because we own a 2006 Prius and a 2011 Leaf, neither of which require testing because one has a SULE (Super Ultra Low Emissions) rating and the the other doesn't have a tail pipe.

You can't fake acceleration or gas mileage, but apparently you can fake out emissions tests by installing software capable of detecting when an emissions test is being conducted (via the diagnostic plug in your dash board) that will lean out the fuel mixture and alter the timing (among other things) so the car will pass the test, returning it to normal when the test ends.

I was fooled. Following is a comment I made last year on this subject:
These are all valid points but controlling pollution is mostly a matter of innovation and engineering. You are not necessarily limited by thermodynamics. For example, compare the mileage of the very dirty 2006 diesel Jetta to the very clean 2014 diesel Jetta.
In general, I try not to participate in media feeding frenzies. Here in the States, many diesel Jetta and Golf purchase decisions are based at least partially on the perception that these cars are more environmentally friendly than most. And truth be told, even with these higher emissions, they still are more environmentally friendly when compared to the vast majority of cars sold in the United States. And unlike some other car manufacturer cover ups, this one didn't involve fatalities or injuries.


EPAComparison

I created the above graphic from the EPA Green Vehicle website. Note that since 2006, the Golf appeared to have improved its gas mileage more than 9% and its smog rating five fold (32 mpg to 35 mpg and 1 to 5 respectively).

Back in 2006 many States did not allow the sale of new Jettas or Golfs because of their emissions. Volkswagen decided not to sell them at all in the U.S. in 2007 and 2008 (those model years for diesel Jettas and Golfs are missing in the EPA Green Vehicle data base). In 2009 they introduced their new and improved versions that ostensibly met EPA standards, however (engineering being the art of compromise), they came with engineering compromises that would have degraded performance and therefore, sales, which eventually led to the emissions software cheat.

So what's the big deal?

The big deal is trust. They cheated customers to sell cars. Some owners, instead of being proud of their environmentally friendly car, will now be embarrassed by it. Surely Volkswagen knew this deception would eventually be exposed. They may have been anticipating a modest fine of some kind. Instead they have seen a collapse in stock value and I would not be surprised if this results in a permanent rejection of the Volkswagen brand by many American consumers. But again, maybe they were planning to rename the company anyway!
Now, having said all that, we might want to brace ourselves. Volkswagen may just be the first one caught. Read Biofuel Makers May Have Known About Volkswagen Emissions Rigging for Years.

There are still a lot of people out there clinging to the idea that diesel engines burning biodiesel made from soy, or canola, or palm, have the potential to curb greenhouse gas emissions but that idea has been pretty thoroughly studied by now. Most news you read today about biodiesel made from food stock is hype from those financially invested in biodiesel. Read Third Person Sentenced in Las Vegas for International Biofuel Fraud Conspiracy.

Coincidentally, our neighbors sold their first generation 2001 Prius and bought a 2015 diesel Golf just a few weeks ago. I test drove it. Great car, especially when compared to the soot belching, engine rattling, 2006 version once so popular with biodiesel enthusiasts. They had a difficult time choosing between a Prius and the Golf. Had this news arrived just a few weeks earlier, they would likely be driving a Prius today and that is an example of why Volkswagen should pay dearly for what they just did.

Friday, August 21, 2015

EV Update: Chevy Bolt, Tesla's Ludicrous Mode, Speed Record

Bolt

 Chevy Bolt
Cross posted from Energy Trends Insider

The July announcement from Chevy of its upcoming $38K, 200-mile range Bolt electric car is, in my humble opinion, of similar historical importance to Nissan's announcement back in 2011 of the Leaf. With 55 test Bolts running around, this looks like the real deal. When it comes to electric cars, it's all about the battery and for the Bolt that battery is made by LG Chem. The price and range of the Bolt says it all, which is why Nissan is considering a switch to the LG Chem battery as well. Nissan has hinted that the 2017 Leaf may have a 250 mile range.

Interestingly enough, the impending improvement in battery technology is hurting sales for the Leaf and Volt. I can understand why someone in the market for an electric car might wait a year or so for a version with twice the mileage at a similar price. Conventional cars don't have to deal with major technological leaps that can obsolete all other cars overnight ...battery growing pains.

The second generation Volt using the latest LG Chem battery has a third fewer cells than the original model (192/288) and has roughly a 25 % improvement in range. Extrapolating this data I estimate that a 200 mile range Leaf would require about 479 of those cells: 384 - (0.33 x 384cells ) = 256 cells. ((256 cells/86 miles) x 200 miles)) / 1.25 = 479 cells. All things being equal, the fewer cells a battery management system has to keep track of, the better. The Panasonic battery powered 200 mile range Tesla Model S presently has about 5,000 cells. That's over ten times as many cells and all of the attendant software and hardware needed to connect, charge, and monitor them.

Tesla announced its "ludicrous mode" which would allow a Tesla to accelerate from 0-60 mph in 2.8 seconds. Ludicrous mode refers to faster than light speed in the Space Balls spoof of Star Wars. In the Next Generation Star Trek series they called it warp drive ...engage! Benjamin Zhang of Business Insider was so impressed with ludicrous mode that he wrote an article (complete with photos of ten high-end sports cars) comparing apples to oranges (a $70K electric sports car to much more expensive conventional ones).

WhiteZombie
White Zombie Photo Via Inside EVs
StudentRecord
Student Built Electric Car Photo Via Gizmag

What he should have done was compare the Tesla acceleration to other electric cars like the car built by college students who just broke the record for electric cars (0-60 in 1.72 seconds). Or better yet, compare it to the 1972 electric Datsun 1200 White Zombie built in a guy's garage (0-60 mph in 1.8 seconds). The acceleration capacity of an electric vehicle is a relatively simple matter of driving a big motor with a big battery, connecting the two through fuses, wires, and a controller designed to handle the current draw ...big drill motors on wheels.

20150718_134414

Truth be told, too much potential acceleration is dangerous, especially when it's being done on our roadways by anybody who can swing the payments on a $70K car instead of professional drivers at a race track. In an earlier article I described a Tesla wreck on city streets that split the car in half . The back end of the Tesla was jammed in the doorway of a synagogue maybe 100 feet away from the front end of the car. Over-hyping a relatively affordable electric sport car's capacity to accelerate for marketing purposes may come back to bite Tesla. Compared to the really high-end sports cars, the Tesla is actually pretty cheap so there will be a lot of them on the road by comparison. Tesla sales have passed 80,000.

Beech
Wikipedia Photo of Beech S35 Bonanza

The Beech S35 Bonanza earned the nickname "Doctor Killer" because it was a high performance plane being flown by non-professional pilots. Tragically, one recently crashed not far from where we were camping earlier this summer.

Saturday, July 25, 2015

Everything Old is New Again; Biofuels, Still a Bad Idea

Gorilla at Woodland Park Zoo

 Cross-posted from Energy Trends Insider

I recently recieved two emails on the same day; one about more palm oil plantations usurping yet another tropical ecosystem, this time for highly endangered African Gorillas instead of Indonesian Orangutans, and the other from my local Sierra Club asking me to urge my elected representatives to reject a transportation funding bill that would not allow our Governor to mandate the consumption of biofuels. Instead, I wrote a letter to the editor of the Seattle Times expressing my opposition to a biofuel mandate (which, of course, wasn't published). I put a copy of that rejected submission at the end of this post as an example of what not to send to the Seattle Times Op Ed department.

And today the headline in the Seattle Times reads: "Inslee, the ‘greenest’ governor — not so much"

Why?
"He pushed ahead with a highway-expanding $16 billion transportation package, accepting a “poison pill” provision that could hinder his administration’s plans to enact a new clean-fuels regulation.

The Republican-backed provision would divert hundreds of millions of dollars away from transit, bicycling and walking projects if the Inslee administration tries to enact the cleaner fuels rule, known as a low-carbon fuel standard, by executive order."
Printed newspapers are in the middle of their own extinction event, which isn't moving fast enough in my opinion. I wrote my first critique of biodiesel in an article for Grist back in 2005 called "Bad Idea" at the height of the biodiesel fad hitting Seattle. In 2009 I wrote an article about why Seattle dropped the use of biodiesel.

Scientists submitting work to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are having issues over the issue of biofuels. The following paragraph represents the compromise wording finally released last year to placate both sides:
“Biofuels have direct, fuel‐cycle GHG emissions that are typically 30–90% lower than those for gasoline or diesel fuels. However, since for some biofuels indirect emissions—including from land use change—can lead to greater total emissions than when using petroleum products, policy support needs to be considered on a case by case basis”
The problem in my eyes is that, thanks to human nature, the profit motive will continue to roll over indigenous people and ecosystems. Corporations sensitive to public image simply sell off problematic plantations to corporations who are not so sensitive. At one point in our recent geologic history, there were several upright walking primate species coexisting on this planet with our species. We are the last primate species that will walk on this planet, but hopefully, we won't one day be the last primate species.

With shifting climate patterns, drought in five states, forest fires raging from Alaska to Southern California, chronic water shortages, and a global population still growing by roughly 75 million a year , how wise is it to further expand agriculture to fuel our cars?

As we approached our campsite in Okanogan County a few weeks ago we saw what we thought was a big thundercloud on the horizon which turned out to be a forest fire burning just fifteen miles away. Our tents were dusted with falling ash before it was brought under control. Another camper had recently returned from a camping trip where even the Hoh rain forest is experiencing its largest fire in recorded history. In the last several years it has become the norm to check for forest fires before setting off on a camping trip. This is how it happens. Slowly, over time, changes to the environment become accepted as the norm, with only the old-timers remembering what used to be (sky darkening clouds of passenger pigeons, herds of bison over the horizon, Carolina parakeets, ivory billed woodpeckers).

Washington State, thanks to its mountains and river systems providing hydro electric power, has one of the lowest carbon electrical grids in the nation along with some of the lowest electricity rates. It puts Germany's electrical grid to shame with respect to both carbon emissions and especially cost (never mind for the moment the destruction of salmon and sturgeon migrations that resulted).

US State GHG Emissions
German GHG Emissions

That's the thing about renewable energy. Economic viability is a function of where on the planet you are. ...location, location, location. A one-size-fits-all global solution, it is not. Whatever mix and associated costs Germany settles on will be unique to Germany.

By circumstance, Washington is already way ahead of the game when it comes to decarbonizing energy consumption. By comparison, a State like Indiana; flat as a board, not particularly sunny or windy, using a lot of air-conditioning in the summer, heat in the winter, and powered mostly by coal might best be decarbonized with the help of nuclear energy.

Indiana GHG Emissions

Washington's main source of carbon comes from transportation. Electric cars would not be particularly effective at reducing emissions in Indiana thanks to the coal used to make electricity. On the other hand, they can be highly effective in Washington State.

As an agricultural powerhouse, Indiana could try decarbonizing its transport sector with corn and soy beans. This idea of the Midwest consuming their own biofuel products was first suggested by Robert Rapier years ago. Never mind for the moment that corn ethanol may not actually reduce carbon emissions much, if at all. A University of Wisconsin study published this year by the Institute of Physics estimated that emissions from the expansion of cropland in the United States to meet demand for mandated use of biofuels was "equivalent to a year's carbon dioxide release from 34 coal-fired power plants or an additional 28 million cars on the road."

The Governor of Indiana does not mandate the use of flex fuel cars and E85 gas, or even a blend of soybean biodiesel quite simply because the economic cost of doing so would largely negate the high grain prices being received by Indiana farmers (transfer of wealth) thanks to the federal fuel mandates.

Maybe Indiana should burn corn instead of coal to make electricity? And I realize that sounds absurd but there are wood stoves designed to do just that. Displacing coal with corn might be less carbon intensive than making a liquid fuel out of it, but again, it all comes down to cost. Coal is a lot cheaper than corn ...and I don't know which lobby is more powerful in Indiana, corn or coal.

Which brings us back to Washington State. Instead of doing something really innovative, like promoting the installation of high speed chargers at 7-Elevens (or wherever) in urban areas to match Tesla's Walled Garden of high-speed chargers which are only for Tesla owners, our Governor favors the more politically astute strategy of mandating biofuel use to capture the farm vote. For now, he can't do that but because he tried, he will still get his farm vote and that's how politics work.

For anyone interested, more about the camping trip below:
Our campsite on the dry side of the mountains in Washington State, which we have returned to for many years, was, for the first time, visited by rattlesnakes, one of which I carried away from the campsite on the end of my camera monopole. He was curious about the pole, nosed it a few times, and once I got him to crawl over the "far" end, I was able to gently picked him up without alarm. When I sat him back down a safer distance from the tents, he calmly crawled away ...in the opposite direction of the campsite.

Western Rattlesnake Western Rattlesnake

I failed to get a picture of any of them but they were similar to the subspecies shown above (photo courtesy Wikipedia). The pattern looks similar to that of a common gopher snake, especially after dark. One teenage camper had actually reached down to pick up what he thought was a gopher snake after dark but thought better of it when he heard a strange rattle sound. Two problems; gopher snakes are not nocturnal and what are the odds the rattle sound was not from a rattlesnake? That was a close call and I hope he learned a lesson.

Dragonfly on a stick
Dragonfly on a stick
If you see three rattlesnakes, you can bet there are more you didn't see, and they tend to come out at night. They're pit vipers. Those small pits located on their heads are sensory organs that can essentially see heat, especially at night when the cooler air contrasts better with a warm prey body ...that also can't see the snake in the dark. My guess is that the especially dry, hot weather was drawing them out of the hills toward the lake in search of water. Our campsite just happened to lay between the hills and the lake.

Immature Rubber Boa Immature Rubber Boa

Minutes after I had moved the rattlesnake, my wife and daughter walked up with a young rubber boa that had been crossing the road. No mistaking one of these for a rattlesnake. Like rattlesnakes, rubber boas are often active at night but also spend most of their time underground (note its small eyes). You will rarely see the other common snakes in this area (racer, garter, or gopher snake) out after sunset. I've included a few other photos from past camping events below.

Mature_Boa
Mature Rubber Boa


Mountain Blue Bird Mountain Blue Bird

Tree Frogs Tree Frogs

bigmantis Immature Praying Mantis (photo by Jack Stephens)

Osprey Osprey



Frog on a flower

And for anyone interested, the copy of the rejected submission to the Seattle Times follows:

This is Why We Have a Two Party Political System
Thankfully, the senate transportation package on its way to Governor Inslee's desk still contains the purported poison pill (language that should prevent Governor Inslee from mandating the consumption of biofuels). Roughly a third of America's corn harvest is already in our gas tanks thanks to federally mandated biofuel consumption. Last year, the IPCC warned that some biofuels can lead to more total emissions than petroleum based fuels and that "increasing bioenergy crop cultivation poses risks to ecosystems and biodiversity."

A University of Wisconsin study published this year by the Institute of Physics estimated that emissions from the expansion of cropland in the United States to meet demand for mandated use of biofuels was "equivalent to a year's carbon dioxide release from 34 coal-fired power plants or an additional 28 million cars on the road."

Times change. At the height of Seattle's biodiesel craze you could practically walk across Ballard on the top of smelly, soot spewing, biodiesel fueled Jettas. The once ubiquitous biodiesel bumper stickers have practically disappeared.

Governor Inslee is an old-school biofuel enthusiast and long-time supporter of the biofuel industry. In 2007 he co-wrote the book "Apollo's Fire" which extolled the virtues of corn ethanol (25 mentions), biodiesel (31 mentions), and cellulosic ethanol (42 mentions). The book also praised the newly formed Imperium Renewables biodiesel refinery in Grays Harbor (12 mentions) ...which has since decided to get into the oil business by expanding its facilities to transfer a daily trainload of crude oil to tanker ships bound for refineries along the West coast.

From the book:
“It would be comforting to avoid the prospect of being proven wrong by the passage of time. But your authors are built of sterner stock. We refuse to take refuge in the privilege of punditry to cloak our comments in vague surmises.”
One of many predictions proved wrong by the passage of time was that "cellulosic ethanol will make a rapid penetration of the market" and that "meaningful amounts of cellulosic ethanol" will be available at service stations across the country by 2011. According to the EPA, there was no cellulosic ethanol available in 2011and last year, total national production of cellulosic ethanol was still measured in the thousands of gallons while corn ethanol exceeded 14 billion gallons. It is entirely likely that cellulosic ethanol may one day be dropped from the biofuel mandate.

With shifting weather patterns, drought conditions in five states, and forest fires raging from Alaska to Southern California, how smart is it to expand agriculture to fuel our cars? There are many other options we can take to reduce our transportation footprint. For example, in Seattle, a two-car family driving a Prius and a Leaf emit half the GHG emissions per mile of a one-car family driving a car that gets the U.S. average for gas mileage.

Sources:

University of Wisconsin Study:

http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/10/4/044003/pdf/1748-9326_10_4_044003.pdf page 9, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Institute_of_Physics and http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/05/07/3654392/corn-ethanol-illegal/



Amount of corn used for ethanol:

http://www.bloomberg.com/bw/articles/2014-01-06/u-dot-s-dot-ethanol-mandate-would-be-eliminated-if-bipartisan-legislation-passes



IPCC quote:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2014/04/20/its-final-corn-ethanol-is-of-no-use/



Quotes from book Apollo's Fire used "search inside the book" on Amazon.com:

http://www.amazon.com/gp/aw/d/B00ZY8KG7K/ref=mp_s_a_1_6?qid=1436978338&sr=8-6&pi=SL75_QL70&keywords=apollo%27s+fire+inslee



Two-car family calculation:

Prius MPG = 48:

http://touch.toyota.com/prius/

U.S. Average MPG = 24:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/12/13/cars-in-the-u-s-are-more-fuel-efficient-than-ever-heres-how-it-happened/



Nissan Leaf in Seattle is charged by Seattle City Light Grid which is composed of 95% low carbon energy sources hydro, wind, and nuclear:

http://www.seattle.gov/light/FuelMix/



Imperium Renewables oil transport:

http://www.opb.org/news/article/a-washington-clean-fuel-business-that-can-hardly-make-a-buck-in-washington/



Cellulosic Ethanol available in 2011:

http://www.epa.gov/otaq/fuels/rfsdata/2015emts.htm